为什么不建议长期持有杠杆代币

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在加密資產行業裡,槓桿代幣總是受到誤解最深的產品。這些代幣實質上是通過衍生品和槓桿來放大標的資產收益的資金工具。通常來說,槓桿代幣提供某一指數或某特定資產日回報率的乘數。例如,多頭BTC3倍槓桿代幣可以讓你獲得三倍的比特幣日回報。

很多交易者都會感到疑惑,為什麼槓桿代幣的表現和相應指數不是對應關係?這篇文章將深入解析兩個問題:為什麼槓桿代幣的表現會有所變化?以及為什麼不應該長期持有槓桿代幣?

如果持有超過一天,槓桿代幣的表現將如何變化?

槓桿代幣的設計是為了使標的資產的日回報率成倍增加,在這裡要注意一個詞:日回報率。每個槓桿代幣的槓桿係數在每天都會重新設置。因此,代幣和標的資產的表現從長期來看可能有所不同。

雖然把日回報率和總回報率進行比較似乎很瑣碎,但背後的數學邏輯卻能帶來很大影響。例如,就拿最簡單的非槓桿投資組合來說,如果某天虧損10%,第二天即便盈利10%也無法達到盈虧平衡。如果一筆100美元的投資虧損了10%,就只剩下90美元;如果第二天盈利10%,也只是在90美元的基礎上盈利10%,最終只能達到99美元。顯然,這與你所預期的完全不符。

因此,如果投資組合遭遇了虧損,就需要比虧損金額更多的盈利金額來達到盈虧平衡。以下圖表展示了投資組合在不同虧損程度下要達到盈虧平衡所需的回報率。

如上所示,投資組合虧損越大,要達到盈虧平衡所需的回報率就越高。而對於槓桿代幣來說,這種腐蝕是定期發生的。不僅如此,如果對資金使用了槓桿,這種腐蝕會被加倍放大。

讓我們以一個例子來說明槓桿代幣的真實運作機制。

在下面的例子中,我們將以3倍多頭BTC槓桿代幣為例,假設比特幣指數的初始價值為100美元,槓桿代幣的初始資產淨值也是100美元。

假設比特幣指數在第1天下跌10%,即指數以90美元收盤,而槓桿代幣以70美元收盤。似乎問題不大,對嗎?

在第2天,比特幣指數上漲15%,收103.5美元,此時指數高於初始價值3.5%。

你可能會認為,3倍槓桿代幣的收盤價將是110.5美元,即高出初始價值10.5%,也就是這兩天指數平均回報率(3.5%)的3倍。

事實上,代幣的真實收盤價將是101.5美元,即僅高出初始價值1.5%。這是因為槓桿代幣將標的資產的常規回報率放大成3倍,變成45%(3×15%),槓桿代幣的初始資產淨值也從70美元上升到101.5美元。

假設在第3天,這一虛擬的比特幣指數下跌了5%,到98.33美元,即與初始價值相比總共下降了1.7%。

你可能會有以下兩個推定:

1)因為指數在這3天內的淨變化等於0%, 代幣價值會恢復到100美元;

或者

2)代幣收94.9美元,是3天平均指數回報率(1.7%)的3倍。

然而,這兩種推定都是錯的。事實上,槓桿代幣價值會跌到86.28美元,即-5%的3倍,5%是指數第3天的回報率。因此,代幣在經過3天后,價值跌了13.7%。

如果數學解釋較難懂,那麼以下圖表則清晰展示了指數和代幣在整個時期的每日價格變化。

每日調倉的影響

許多投資者會忽略一個事實,那就是槓桿代幣會每日進行調倉。定期調倉會通過擴大或縮小敞口來維持資金的原始目標。如果資金要縮小指數敞口,就會在衍生品市場上賣出一定倉位,鎖定虧損,這將導致本金減少。日積月累,這樣的腐蝕就會對投資者的本金產生影響。

由於槓桿代幣需要每日重新設置,波動性就是你最大的敵人。這可能與大多數人的看法相悖。

在大多數情況下,波動性都是交易者最好的朋友。但對於槓桿代幣卻不是如此。由於日回報率的複合效應,你最後可能得到完全意想不到的結果,波動性可能會帶來毀滅性的打擊。

標的指數/資產的波動性越高,槓桿代幣在之後的時間裡就會損失越多價值,即便到年底時基準又回歸了初始值。如果指數波動劇烈,長期持有槓桿代幣可能會造成大額虧損。

無論市場上行還是下行,複合效應都會起作用。經過一定分析後,你會發現,跟踪統一指數的一些多頭和空頭代幣在同一時期的表現都很差。如果交易者不理解這些代幣的運作原理,可能會造成困惑。

我們將對3種投資產品在從2020年7月6日到10月6日的3個月內的累計收益率進行比較,這3種投資產品分別是:BTC/USDT 合約(藍線)、3倍多頭槓桿代幣(橙線)、3倍空頭槓桿代幣(灰線)。

如圖所示,比特幣在這一時期的累計收益率經歷了大幅波動,對於槓桿代幣而言是最糟糕的情形。比特幣在這3個月裡的總收益率為13.4%,與之對應的3倍多頭槓桿代幣表現卻很糟糕,收益率僅為2.1%。而3倍空頭槓桿代幣在這一時期虧損了近50%。

這一真實案例清楚地告訴我們,槓桿代幣不適合長線投資。每日的調倉和槓桿設置會導致其長期表現產生差異。因此,槓桿代幣在某些情況下也無法密切追踪標的資產。

交易槓桿代幣的3條規則

第1條:只將槓桿代幣用於短期交易。如果持有時間過長,就會受到每日調倉的負面影響,投資收益率會下降。

第2條:聚焦勢頭明朗強勁的市場。槓桿代幣在市場趨勢和勢頭強勁的時候表現最好。確保這些因素都處於利好狀態,就可以增加盈利機率。

第3條:用槓桿代幣補充核心投資組合的敞口。槓桿代幣不是現貨市場持有資產的替代品。但它們為交易者提供增加敞口、利用短期市場趨勢盈利的機會。

如果槓桿代幣的使用方法正確,是不會出現任何問題的。你需要理解它的運作原理,才能在合適的時機用上合適的工具。槓桿代幣是短期交易的強大工具,但長期持有需謹慎。

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